Coronavirus Live Updates

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rbbert said:
Although most of what I have seen and read that way has been as hard to interpret (in terms of personal and real-world applicability) as a lot of what is posted here, and unfortunately there is quite a bit of "fake news" (to be fair, not always intentional, just accidental) even from otherwise respected news outlets. The difficulty for most readers and viewers is having an adequate knowledge and experience base to separate the wheat from the chaff. Even the CDC's credibility is questionable as the website continued to insist (even through 3/16) that transmission from people with minimal or no symptoms was not important.

Unfortunately, the only realistic advice for most people right now is to do what you are told (often in the form of mandatory government commands). The amount of non-critical, "independent thinking" opinions posted on this and other audiophile (and general interest) websites is astonishing and scary. If you don't have the appropriate knowledge base, experience and access to data to broadcast a worthwhile opinion, you should make that clear.

In retrospect (and it shouldn't be surprising) the data coming from China on this virus and the associated outbreak in China was woefully incomplete, leaving the rest of the world uninformed and unprepared. And like it or not, that was deliberate and political.
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The CDC is one of the most credible websites but the information they are obtaining about the virus is evolving and changes sometimes daily. People need to realise that what we know about the virus is not exactly set in stone.
 
Mechnutt said:
The CDC is one of the most credible websites but the information they are obtaining about the virus is evolving and changes sometimes daily. People need to realise that what we know about the virus is not exactly set in stone.
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Unfortunately true. Also unfortunately for the CDC's credibility is that credible (i.e., somewhat evidence-based) information contradicting that opinion about asymptomatic spread had been available for several days before they retracted it. Also disturbing is that many CDC researchers have claimed to be under a virtual "gag order" from administration about discussing any findings that contradict the official "party line".

There is still so much we don't know about this whole situation, both the medicine and the politics, and that uncertainty and unknowing is leading to socioeconomic turmoil, which further interferes with the practical aspects of fighting this illness.
 
It sure would be nice if the media could give people some hope in place of constant panic.

Watch the scroll at the bottom of your news. They list each state, cases and deaths. BUT they NEVER note the recovered and non symptom cases.
 
rbbert said:
Unfortunately true. Also unfortunately for the CDC's credibility is that credible (i.e., somewhat evidence-based) information contradicting that opinion about asymptomatic spread had been available for several days before they retracted it. Also disturbing is that many CDC researchers have claimed to be under a virtual "gag order" from administration about discussing any findings that contradict the official "party line".

There is still so much we don't know about this whole situation, both the medicine and the politics, and that uncertainty and unknowing is leading to socioeconomic turmoil, which further interferes with the practical aspects of fighting this illness.
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Proof?
 
kiwi_1282001 said:
Lockdown Mania


The list of countries in lockdown is quickly expanding with the United Kingdom and New Zealand joining 15 other countries in the last 24 hours. (1)


What lockdown means varies by country. During my recent 50 day lockdown in China only one person once every two days could leave home to obtain essential supplies. All shops other than supermarkets and pharmacies where closed. Other than essential services all workplaces / offices were closed as were all restaurants, bars, cinemas, parks, tourist attractions and schools. Significant travel restrictions were in place. Testing was everywhere.



Locked up at home with your family is certainly an acid test of bonds. The image from Little House on the Prairie of Ma, Pa, and the girls, safe in a frontier cabin, with only the wolves to fear – is shall we say – stress tested. Home schooling kids is taxing. Furthermore, be warned. There is also abundant opportunity for your significant other to point out an imbalance in domestic labor.


The objective of lockdowns is to severely limit the scale of physical and social interaction, and thus slow the spread of the coronavirus so that the growth in cases does not overwhelm national health services and lead to mass deaths. But the effectiveness of a lockdown depends on the speed at which it is implemented and compliance of those captured by it.


Listen to Dr. Michael J Ryan, Executive Director, WHO Health Emergencies Programme outline in a little over 1 minute lessons he’s learned in how to respond to a pandemic. (2)





There’s Hope


In a world that’s desperately lacking good news, here’s some.


According to official statistics, China has temporarily at least controlled the coronavirus spread. Over the last five days, health authorities have reported only one new locally transmitted case of Covid-19 – a patient in Guangdong province infected by someone travelling from abroad. In Wuhan, the center of the outbreak and the country’s worst-hit area, officials on Monday reported a fifth day without new cases. WHO claims that “Wuhan provides hope for the rest of the world that even the most severe situation can be turned around.”(3)


A combination of quarantines, aggressive testing, social distancing, isolation of infected patients and hygiene measures are believed to have contributed to the result. Of course, the wolves are still outside the cabin. Lockdowns et. al. are not a cure.


The coming months will also show with the easing of restrictions within China whether the situation reverses. But at least there’s hope and a potential model to help individuals stay healthy, to break the chain of transmission - giving more vulnerable populations a fighting chance of surviving this pandemic.




Sources:
(1) https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11233604/which-countries-are-on-coronavirus-lockdown-spain-italy/
(2) Sky News “Saturday March 14 2020 WHO: How to respond to a pandemic” https://youtu.be/e-XPL91r0uk
(3) https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/wuhan-recovery-gives-hope-to-rest-of-world-who
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There is a slight difference between the response in Wuhan and the one in the US. In the latter people are asked to stay home, some states have after days and weeks issued corresponding orders. Testing is still very limited, health experts (CDC, doctors) estimate the number of the unregistered cases in the US is a multiple of the official figure. As the WHO guy says, speed and decisive action would be key.

In Wuhan authorities stopped all public transportation, closed everything except supermarkets, and welded people’s doors shut to keep them in. Only one person was let out once a week or then the authorities delivered the food.

Most of Europe is now shut down, in Germany it is forbidden to congregate outside in groups larger than two. Using public children’s playgrounds is forbidden by law. Violations of the congregation order will be fined with €200,-, if you let people in your restaurant the fine is even €4.000,-.

Desperate times for sure.


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Here is a Ted Talk by a fellow named Larry Brilliant who is an expert on the subject of fighting pandemics.
His advice for combating a pandemic is “early detection, early response.”
From Mr. Brilliant’s experience as explained in the video, given the reduced numbers of tests in the USA, we should have a lot more folks carrying the virus than we know.

https://www.ted.com/talks/larry_brilliant_my_wish_help_me_stop_pandemics
 
Bill Gates today:

"The U.S. is past this opportunity to control (COVID-19) without shutdown," Gates said during a TED Connects program broadcast online. "We did not act fast enough to have an ability to avoid the shutdown."

"It's very tough to say to people, 'Hey keep going to restaurants, go buy new houses, ignore that pile of bodies over in the corner, we want you to keep spending because there's some politician that thinks GDP growth is what counts,'" Gates said. "It's hard to tell people during an epidemic … that they should go about things knowing their activity is spreading this disease."

Tough position we are in.

Article here:

https://www.foxnews.com/tech/bill-gates-us-missed-chance-to-coronavirus-shutdowns-closed
 
Dr. Boris Lushniak, former U.S. Deputy Surgeon General, and current Dean of Maryland School of Public Health: the current outbreak numbers in the US probably represent the actual status maybe 10-15 days ago. But he also said, 80% of the cases show mild symptoms or no symptoms at all.

Further, an interesting epidemology study from Oxford University in the UK, arguing the spread has already happened in the country, and herd immunity in humans is building. According to the article they start testing now, trying to find support for the findings. If correct, quarantine measures could be reduced earlier than previously thought.

https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b


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Part of a every other day update email from my company just to show that there is a massive effort underway to find vaccines and medications that may help with this current situation. For the last 15 years, I have been conflicted to work within the Big Pharma Industry, but at this moment, I could not be prouder and happy to have the job I have right now.


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It’s been an extraordinary past few weeks. As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to escalate, our world is facing challenges of a magnitude not seen before during our lifetimes.

As of Sunday, the number of coronavirus cases globally surged past 300,000 and while the situation varies regionally, we are seeing an increase in government-mandated quarantines and lockdowns where our offices are located.

We couldn’t be prouder of the work that Parexel is doing as an organization in support of the current pandemic. Parexel is contributing actively to the vaccine development efforts for COVID-19 while continuing to develop a broad range of therapies with the potential to change and save patient lives. Our efforts extend beyond our own organization to include collaboration on a harmonized risk-based monitoring approach aligned with regulatory agencies as part of the broader industry response being led through the Association of Clinical Research Organizations (ACRO).
 
I did some back of the envelope calculations, based on epidemiological data from Iceland, which has tested a larger proportion of its population that any other country in the world by far. From that analysis, my hypothesis is that we have 6 to 7X as many people infected in the USA than is currently being reported, which at this moment, just ticked over 60,000. So, if we have the same proportion of cases that Iceland has per capita (and its a reasonable assumption to assume we do), we have presently anywhere from 350,000 to 480,000 individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 in the USA.
 
Puma Cat said:
I did some back of the envelope calculations, based on epidemiological data from Iceland, which has tested a larger proportion of its population that any other country in the world by far. From that analysis, my hypothesis is that we have 6 to 7X as many people infected in the USA than is currently being reported, which at this moment, just ticked over 60,000. So, if we have the same proportion of cases that Iceland has per capita (and its a reasonable assumption to assume we do), we have presently anywhere from 350,000 to 480,000 individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 in the USA.
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And anywhere between 349,000 and 478,000 that have recovered or had no symptoms. Lets start focusing on the good as opposed to the constant doom and gloom the media is feeding us.

From WHO
Close to 800 000 people die due to suicide every year, which is one person every 40 seconds. Where is the outrage and panic?


Nearly 1.25 million people die in road crashes each year, on average 3,287 deaths a day. An additional 20-50 million are injured or disabled.

Heart Disease in the United States
About 647,000 Americans die from heart disease each year—that's 1 in every 4 deaths. Heart disease costs the United States about $219 billion each year from 2014 to 2015. - Where is the outrage and panic?

In 2017, gun deaths reached their highest level since 1968 with 39,773 deaths by firearm, of which 23,854 were by suicide and 14,542 were homicides. The rate of firearm deaths per 100,000 people rose from 10.3 per 100,000 in 1999 to 12 per 100,000 in 2017, with 109 people dying per day.

Flu season is hitting its stride right now in the US. So far, the CDC has estimated (based on weekly influenza surveillance data) that at least 12,000 people have died from influenza between Oct. 1, 2019 through Feb. 1, 2020, and the number of deaths may be as high as 30,000. - Why are we not shutting down the world over this?

Think about it, are we going a bit overboard here? In reality, as said before, we are all going to get this and move on before vaccines are ready. They will be good for your grand children at best. I agree people need to be clean and smart, but I don't think we should be shutting down the whole world economy over this if we are not going to do the same for all the items I just listed. And, now that it was done, expect a market crash every time something new comes down the pike that is not nearly as deadly as the items listed above. Each issue caused more deaths per year than this Virus will cause and nobody seems outraged or panicked....maybe because the media did not tell you to panic?

We are going to have more Suicides and murders out of an economy shutdown than the Virus also as desperate people become more desperate.
 
Shadowfax said:
And anywhere between 349,000 and 478,000 that have recovered or had no symptoms. Lets start focusing on the good as opposed to the constant doom and gloom the media is feeding us.

From WHO
Close to 800 000 people die due to suicide every year, which is one person every 40 seconds. Where is the outrage and panic?


Nearly 1.25 million people die in road crashes each year, on average 3,287 deaths a day. An additional 20-50 million are injured or disabled.

Heart Disease in the United States
About 647,000 Americans die from heart disease each year—that's 1 in every 4 deaths. Heart disease costs the United States about $219 billion each year from 2014 to 2015. - Where is the outrage and panic?

In 2017, gun deaths reached their highest level since 1968 with 39,773 deaths by firearm, of which 23,854 were by suicide and 14,542 were homicides. The rate of firearm deaths per 100,000 people rose from 10.3 per 100,000 in 1999 to 12 per 100,000 in 2017, with 109 people dying per day.

Flu season is hitting its stride right now in the US. So far, the CDC has estimated (based on weekly influenza surveillance data) that at least 12,000 people have died from influenza between Oct. 1, 2019 through Feb. 1, 2020, and the number of deaths may be as high as 30,000. - Why are we not shutting down the world over this?

Think about it, are we going a bit overboard here? In reality, as said before, we are all going to get this and move on before vaccines are ready. They will be good for your grand children at best. I agree people need to be clean and smart, but I don't think we should be shutting down the whole world economy over this if we are not going to do the same for all the items I just listed. And, now that it was done, expect a market crash every time something new comes down the pike that is not nearly as deadly as the items listed above. Each issue caused more deaths per year than this Virus will cause and nobody seems outraged or panicked....maybe because the media did not tell you to panic?

We are going to have more Suicides and murders out of an economy shutdown than the Virus also as desperate people become more desperate.
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This has been my consideration. In our mobile, gregarious, society, its well nigh impossible to stop these viruses, which is why we have not stopped society, every year, for flu season. The loss of productivity for this work stoppage period, will be a huge hit. Much larger damage that this virus.

People do seem to be reacting individually to the virus though. Obviously the folk with unhealthy issues are at great risk. However, some of the deaths have been to healthy people too.

I use the "risks of driving your car on the freeway" all the time when discussing risk/benefits with people. No one thinks twice about getting in a car, and driving fast on the freeway, surrounded by other maniacs out for a ride. Start a new, well tolerated medicine..., now let me check with Google first.
 
Good thing none of the posters here can actually affect our country's actions in response to this situation
 
Today’s issue of USA Today has another (after CNN’s) Q & A with Dr. Frieden. IMHO, everyone here should read it and take note of the unknowns as well as the recommendations based on what we do know.
 
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