Tariff implications.........

Shadowfax said:
Sources that most here would deem not credible, we shall see. And if you have not heard of the new plans for lower taxes to come out of tariffs and energy sales along with tax revenue from all the business coming back to the US, I am unsure what you are listening to.
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The issue of the currency is off topic so I won't address it. I was just curious.

WRT the 'lower taxes plan' the problem there is perceived credibility. Its not credible if the tariffs are on again off again at a whim and so far, Trump is perceived as having blinked. So tariffs aren't seen as a reliable source of funds. In the meantime, it will take years if not decades to 'bring business back' since factories take time to build as I explained earlier. So if you have portrayed this correctly, it looks to me that whatever source you're drawing on hasn't thought this through, which remains my position even if this info came directly from the administration.

I run a business so it might be my perspective is different. But if I were running a large company that had all its production overseas, I'd be thinking very carefully about the idea that I have to bring all that production to the US, possibly meaning I have to build the facility to allow for that, and then get taxed on it! That dawg don't hunt as they say.

This is part of why I see this administration as anti-business.
 
This is actually a fascinating thread to read, and it helps when there are Industry representatives (like Ralph @atmasphere?) who are providing their perspectives from the lifeblood of US economy: Small Medium Businesses.

The Canton Trade Fair in China, which is one of the largest import/export trade fairs in the world, is happening now. It appears that US attendees to this show has dropped significantly but there's also been an increase in other global representatives who have kept this major convention busy.

The US-imposed Tariffs are having a detrimental impact on the world economy for sure but I can only foresee this working out for China in the long run. They've prepared for this since the first Trump administration and have the discipline and resiliency to weather the storm long term. The US is a tinderbox that catches fire every few years now and we are all suffocating for this, consumers and small medium businesses alike. If a recession is coming (maybe it's already started?), the country suffers economically, which will lead down a difficult path.
 
treitz3 said:
Some people just really need to turn off the TV. Maybe change the channel. So much doom and gloom, without even a little bit of common sense.

Forest through the trees (or agenda) comes to mind.

Tom
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I have US shares on the stockmarket and economics need to be followed. Listen for a long time every week a podcast and follow magazines and newspapers on this topic.

I have to follow the news to find the opportunities and spot a good moment to buy and sell.
 
treitz3 said:
Some people just really need to turn off the TV. Maybe change the channel. So much doom and gloom, without even a little bit of common sense.

Forest through the trees (or agenda) comes to mind.

Tom
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Yes- there is a lot of doom and gloom. And watching TV all the time isn't good for anyone's health!

But WRT 'common sense' which IMO is often oxymoronic, vanishing trillions of dollars overnight likely isn't the best thing to happen in the stock market of any country. 'Common sense' can be supplemented by something called Occam's Razor (which is an excellent tool for winnowing out what is really going on WRT human affairs).

Occam's Razor, in a nutshell, teaches that for a given situation or event, the simplest explanation is likely the correct one. To give you an example, the 2020 election:

One explanation is: despite the Trump administration stating that it was the most secure election in history, and that in some 62 lawsuits brought by the administration, none of them alleged election fraud, and that all the judges of these lawsuits (who mostly threw them out), some appointed by Trump, were somehow compromised by the Democrats (that in itself being a pretty complex idea, given how disorganized Democrats are), and that somehow the Arizona election was stolen by the Democrats despite 3 recounts including one by a highly politically conservative organization, and the only irregularity of voter fraud turned out to be a Republican voter in Nevada who used his dead wife's mail-in ballot, that somehow the election was stolen.

A simpler explanation is that Trump lost and is a sore loser.

You can see that the election being stolen is the far more complex explanation for Trump's loss, and I've left out a lot of stuff that went on during that debacle.

FWIW I am not a Democrat. I am simply pragmatic. I try really hard to look past the spin, hyperbole and drama both parties constantly create (and is too often taken hook line and sinker by the populace).

I'm not sure what is meant by 'common sense' in your post (it implies a position, perhaps a held political opinion), but right now actual common sense and Occam's Razor is saying we have a really serious economic situation going on, which I explained earlier. Common sense would say we need to be paying attention rather than hiding our collective heads in the sand and hoping it will somehow work out because someone said it will somehow.

The simple explanation, the common sense here is that people make mistakes, especially if they are duped (in this case, Navarro). I'm with Musk on this one- tariffs are bad and Navarro is a moron who unfortunately gained the ear of the president which has resulted in financial disaster, since Navarro's advice (tariffs) is based on a made up fantasy.
 
atmasphere said:
Its not likely to further the conversation when name calling is invoked. Can we keep this civil?

Its also useful, re.: the name-calling, to remember it was Netanyahu who funded Hamas in the early 2000s so as to undermine the PA. Its also not anti-Semitic to recognize that genocide is occurring in Palestine. Its more accurate to say that's anti-Zionist; you can be one and not the other.

Personally I don't want to be associated with genocide.

With that out of the way, the actual topic here is tariffs.

Yes.

Many of the countries with whom we do business are quite small. We often have a trade deficit (which is usually a good thing, simply, it means we have money to buy things) with these countries. An example is Eswatini, who produces agricultural products that we buy. They don't buy all that much from us and they do have a small tariff. The income they get from us is important to them though, so as US consumers move away from their products it will have a negative effect on both countries; obviously more on them than us. Their tariff on imported goods was minimal and was not focused on the US.

We live in (or did) a global economy in a very different way than we did only 40 years ago. We have been the richest country in the world so many poorer countries have had tariffs (or import duties; same thing really) that have done us no harm at all.

The problem of course is if tariffs are used as a punishment as we have done in the last few weeks, its very different from one that is not used for that purpose. None of this was a problem for us prior to the inauguration the last January, but now, solely out of declaration, it is.... unfortunately making things worse for us rather than better!

Its also important to keep in mind that the source of this approach to foreign affairs and trade is coming from Peter Navarro, who made up the whole tariff thing. You can find it in a book he wrote called 'Death by China'. Because the Trump administration had no perspective on how to deal with trade in 1.0, Jared Kushner was asked by Trump to study the matter. He found that book and bought on the title only. But it really is just a fantasy as Navarro made up the only 'expert' quoted in the book!

If one is educated in history , then the truth of the matter comes out: tariffs used as punishment doesn't work and mostly just punishes the country that imposes them (look up the Smoot-Hawley act and Hitler's imposition of tariffs). That is the take-away.

I should add another point: the manipulations of our markets by Trump have damaged more than just the stock market and increases in the price of goods. Its also caused world-wide loss of confidence in our national debt; IOW the bond market. This and other factors that are not within the topic of this thread is causing investors to look for safer markets. That is causing our interest rates on bonds to go higher, which in turn has forced the interest on the national debt to be higher than inflation and will fuel the latter.

What I don't get is why the Republican party is OK with this. Traditionally they have been about reducing debt (conservative) and pro-business but I see the 'big beautiful bill' that passed the House recently increases the budget by about 5 trillion dollars (while also hurting business)! On top of that the Trump administration is already spending more than the Biden (of whom I'm no fan) administration. I don't see the promised 'efficiency'. Definitely not what I voted for.
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"Many of the countries with whom we do business are quite small. We often have a trade deficit (which is usually"

So small in fact there are no actual humans. Shows a lot of thought went into that chess move
 
Shadowfax said:
That is usually what happens when one watches too much MSM. People are still being very short sighted. This whole thing is part of a 5 level chess match. Whether you believe it or not, the FIAT money system we have been used to is on it's way out. In the long run after taxes are reduced, the dollar and gold are re-valued, people are going to have more money in their pocket to offset any of the costs related to tariffs or higher prices in general in order to pay people a living wage. I am all in and the rest of the world will follow. Enjoy the ride and don't let the bigger picture go out of focus, if you can even see it yet.
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Which chess move has you concede you will reduce tariffs on China before ever having a meeting with them or talks? That sounds more like you let your mouth overload what you can actually do. China is not the only country to take a hardline with the U.S. I hope you are right but it looks like someone created a big financial mess they have no expertise to get out of. Our leader tried to bully the world just to find out it was him who wasn't holding the cards. You say chess game I hope so but it looks like amateur hour
 
Mr Peabody said:
Which chess move has you concede you will reduce tariffs on China before ever having a meeting with them or talks? That sounds more like you let your mouth overload what you can actually do. China is not the only country to take a hardline with the U.S. I hope you are right but it looks like someone created a big financial mess they have no expertise to get out of. Our leader tried to bully the world just to find out it was him who wasn't holding the cards. You say chess game I hope so but it looks like amateur hour
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I am not going too try to explain it all in this forum. The next year and a half will show the results of what is actually happening that most don't see yet. Unfortunately it is taking a bit longer than I hoped because of how some people are still tied to whatever MSM has to say.

Does anyone here think that last space trip stunt was actually real? Bezos is a Bozzo.
 
Shadowfax said:
They all forgot about the several mass drops just a few short years ago.
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Actually 'they' didn't. 'They' remember it pretty well. The pandemic sucked. The idea that 'its OK now because it happened before when things were bad' strains credulity at best. A more logical conclusion is that if it was bad back then, its likely bad now too. We are seeing the worst April since the market crash in the 1930s.

A trillion is a 1000 billion dollars. Vanishing 5 trillion overnight isn't just a bad trick, its a disaster. That anyone professing conservative values isn't outraged is to me really astonishing.
Shadowfax said:
I am not going too try to explain it all in this forum. The next year and a half will show the results of what is actually happening that most don't see yet. Unfortunately it is taking a bit longer than I hoped because of how some people are still tied to whatever MSM has to say.

Does anyone here think that last space trip stunt was actually real? Bezos is a Bozzo.
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MSM is a supplement that might help with joint pain. Not sure why that's important here ;)

FWIW Dept.: this sort of thing would never have gone down with Republicans 10 years ago. That's a lot of faith to ask for when so many trillions of dollars have been wiped out. The spin I've seen doesn't embrace conservative values, despite it coming from people that call themselves 'Republicans'. Its anti-business and frankly, weird.

We are living in a very different world than we did 10 years ago and apparently (from the spin I've seen) the 'Republican' party no longer exists. Its a real pity.
 
I find it really interesting that we are now the victim of the global market that we created. For over forty years we were told that to be part of the global market we must move our industrial manufacturing away from the US. And now we are being taken advantage of by the industries we shipped out.
 
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Porsche said:
yes it does, Harvard is a disgrace, you brought them up
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Yea, the number one educational and research institution in the world. They are only a disgrace in your eyes because they refuses to bow down to a madman.

I am very proud of my niece who is a Clinical Psychiatrist at Harvard Medical. The number medical research organization in the world. They have made more medical breakthroughs than the rest of the world combined.
 
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From Auralic's US website:

Due to US government tariff policy, we have temporarily suspended all shipment to US address till future notice.
 
I would encourage readers to take a look at this years China auto show coverage by a couple of Brits, and think about how the US can win in a trade war with China. This use to be the market the west hailed as the benchmark of western technology and strength. And we trained and handed it over for cheap labor and temporary profits.

I remember an old cartoon. "We have found the enemy. And they are us!"


 
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