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Shadowfax said:
Sorry to have to disagree. If not getting a Flu Shot gives you a 50/50 chance of getting it, getting the shot and having 46% still get the Flue means No shot gives you close to the same odds as getting one.

Did you even read the article I linked? I didn't make up the facts.

And yes, in my opinion, 100% or at least close would mean Effective but not 46%. And it is a crap shoot each year because they have to pick the 3 or 4 strands that they "Think" are needed a year ahead of time and they are rarely spot on.
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Like I said these are your opinions and dangerous ones. Thinking like this is one of the reasons this Covid-19 pandemic is much worse than it should have ever been.

BTW even in a year when the selected strands aren’t an exact much, flu shot still lessen the severity of the flu and in many cases, that means life and death.
 
Shadowfax said:
Sorry to have to disagree. If not getting a Flu Shot gives you a 50/50 chance of getting it, getting the shot and having 46% still get the Flue means No shot gives you close to the same odds as getting one.

Did you even read the article I linked? I didn't make up the facts.

And yes, in my opinion, 100% or at least close would mean Effective but not 46%. And it is a crap shoot each year because they have to pick the 3 or 4 strands that they "Think" are needed a year ahead of time and they are rarely spot on.
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Respectfully, you're missing the bigger picture from a public health perspective. Vaccinations significantly reduces with statistical signifinance the no. of annual hospitilizations by 40-60%. With our healthcare stresssed to the max with the COVID-19 pandemic, reductions in non-COVID hospilizations is MISSION-CRITICAL. There were 500,000 hospitlizations due to influenza in years 2017/2018 alone.

Flu Burden.jpg
 
Puma Cat said:
Respectfully, you're missing the bigger picture from a public health perspective. Vaccinations significantly reduces with statistical signifinance the no. of annual hospitilizations by 40-60%. With our healthcare stresssed to the max with the COVID-19 pandemic, reductions in non-COVID hospilizations is MISSION-CRITICAL. There were 500,000 hospitlizations due to influenza in years 2017/2018 alone.

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Very good points. It is important to be able to see the forest for the trees.
 
John Burns Murdoch at the Financial Times is doing an excellent job of tracking the COVID pandemic by different metrics. The "kinetics" of these curves is what is most informative.


Each figure has its own legend.
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Daily%20Death%20Increase%20WW.jpg


Rate of Increase of daily confirmed cases.
Stars indicate countries and dates of National Lockdowns. USA has no National Lockdown in place.
Dailly%20New%20Cases.jpg
 
The reason that one chart showing the US death raising is due to to many people are just not taking this serious. Plus I really don't trust the data coming out of China.
 
Mike said:
California has really jumped up.

https://ncov2019.live


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Yes, though part of that was due to having a very large backlog late last week (over 50,0000) of tests that were pending and waiting to be completed. ~40,000 of those pending tests were completed in the last 3 days or so (finally!).

Given the kinetics of their respective curves, looks like Louisiana will be passing CA for number of deaths/day, perhaps within a week. One of John's plots for the Financial Times shows that the increase/day is steeper.
 
Today's updates from the Financial Times. Rate of deaths/day continues to increase in the U.S. Countries with national lockdown are seeing the curve flatten.

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New%20Daily%20Deaths%20by%20Region.jpg
 
Puma Cat said:
Today's updates from the Financial Times. Rate of deaths/day continues to increase in the U.S. Countries with national lockdown are seeing the curve flatten.

Screen%20Shot%202020-04-08%20at%209.39.37%20AM.jpg


New%20Daily%20Deaths%20by%20Region.jpg
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Most stay at home orders are completely half-assed.
 
Mike said:
Most stay at home orders are completely half-assed.
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True. Two things currently showing impact:
- social distancing, shutting down bars, restaurants, all non-essential traffic
- wearing masks while mingling for necessities


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Mike said:
Most stay at home orders are completely half-assed.
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Possibly, but I suspect they are better than nothing.

What I wonder is what will happen when people can go to work, and just start acting human again. The virus isn’t going to disappear. Why won’t it start infecting people again?
 
BlueFox said:
Possibly, but I suspect they are better than nothing.

What I wonder is what will happen when people can go to work, and just start acting human again. The virus isn’t going to disappear. Why won’t it start infecting people again?
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It won’t stop until a vaccine is available. And you really can’t lift up stay at home order without easily accessible broad testing and contact tracing system either. But that doesn’t mean the government won’t. Most certainly there will be a few peaks throughout this year.
 
kzhtoo said:
It won’t stop until a vaccine is available. And you really can’t lift up stay at home order without easily accessible broad testing and contact tracing system either. But that doesn’t mean the government won’t. Most certainly there will be a few peaks throughout this year.
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Since we have not found a vaccine for the flu, I think it is a long shot for Corona as well leading to available awareness on the spot testing, and even then people may or may not address the matter and this all coming from an optimist.


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