Markets

FlexibleAudio said:
Ya, I guess what I am failing to get across is I don't trade. I do fundamental work and take positions accordingly. I don't try to time bottoms or tops. When I see value based on my work I get in (short or long). If it goes against me, I likely get more in. Most my stuff goes at least 3 to 5 years. Trading is nuts to me.
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I get what you're saying, I'm the exact opposite. I trade, so going against momentum is the #1 no-no. I don't have enough confidence in this global market to hold anything for more than a few weeks.
 
astrotoy said:
Just buy hifi equipment and nice cars. In three years you know they will be down 40%, but at least you will have fun. :-) Larry
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Strange, what ever happened to sex, drugs & rock'n roll?

At least they do not depreciate in value, they just depreciate your health.


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On the general topic, there might not be a safe strategy right now, other than a deserted island and surviving on coconuts.

A lots of doomsayers around these days, e.g. RBS recommending to its customers globally a couple weeks back to liquidate all assets as they see another crash being imminent.


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I have no problems if the market falls a bit, corrects, and stabilizes. I am more worried if this is a systemic crash, as the markets did not find the correct price in 2008 and were pulled out with free money. Will the central banks be able to repeat it, or do all countries go the Japan way?
 
Mike said:
The market is fixed. The SEC is behind the times.

Push the market down. Buy low, sell high. The system is gamed. It's happening all the time now.

Very frustrating for Joe Q Public and his retirement account.
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Thank you for this . I am printing this out in 2 foot high letters and making it into a poster above my desk. Good to know these things.....
 
Garth said:
I started at 16 so did my wife as well a the tax free home owner ship plan
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Don't forget a biggie Garth - Canada doesn't have Estate Taxes as well as the ability to opt out of the tax system by leaving the country. America taxes based on Citizenship not Residency . The only other country that does that is.....Libya
 
Hell I guess I was lucky I retired when there was a thing called a pension, with it came provided healthcare not to mention a 401k. The market well I see a 2016 starting and ending just like it started. As far as I know those brainy world leaders (non US) just could be controlling the ups and downs in their attempt to kill the American way of life by generating panic. I really think my grandfather had the plan. Sell your fancy house move way out in the country buy land and chill and enjoy life until you meet your maker. :D Regarding the world economy, oil, China and such as we are mear simpletons in this world game and as simpletons all we can do is save and live within our means as we can't fix something that is out of our reach and control when it's controlled by the "shadow government" .
 
Mike said:
The market is fixed. The SEC is behind the times.

Push the market down. Buy low, sell high. The system is gamed. It's happening all the time now.

Very frustrating for Joe Q Public and his retirement account.
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This is really nothing new. I have a deceased Uncle who figured it out long before the Computer Age. The articles in the Financial section of the Newspapers had hidden messages and my Uncle figured it out and became quite wealthy using the information before he died.

I still say that the world is run from a back room with people just like Cancer Man and the rest of that group depicted on the X Files.
 
Brian - I'm not sure if you've read any of them, but Michael Lewis' books are very eye opening on this topic.

But others will continue to bury their heads in the sand. Maybe we overthink this whole thing? Maybe putting 90% in a S&P 500 index fund and/or DOW Index fund and 10% in bonds is the simple smart way to go?

This was an interesting article I read a couple of years ago: http://www.usatoday.com/story/money...0/30/investing-a-tale-of-two-savers/18189739/
 
until DB stops going down, this market isn't going up.

has nothing to do with oil at this point, which to me bottomed after the waterfall a few weeks back. $20 Oil on the cover of Barron's was humorous this weekend.
 
We the strategy depends on how much money you want to make and how much risk you are willing to take for it.


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FlexibleAudio said:
Ya, I guess what I am failing to get across is I don't trade. I do fundamental work and take positions accordingly. I don't try to time bottoms or tops. When I see value based on my work I get in (short or long). If it goes against me, I likely get more in. Most my stuff goes at least 3 to 5 years. Trading is nuts to me.
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+100 :thumbsup:
 
KeithR said:
until DB stops going down, this market isn't going up.

has nothing to do with oil at this point, which to me bottomed after the waterfall a few weeks back. $20 Oil on the cover of Barron's was humorous this weekend.
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Also very true right now. Fears right now (last couple of weeks) has more to do with European banks falling precipitously and a fear that the Euro banks might spread financial contagion to US banks (a repeat of 2011 fears and 20%+ correction is a good analogy). DB CDS has been blowing out for weeks and at current levels getting to crisis levels.

As for oil, whenever a piece of news makes it to the headlines of the popular business press (think NYT or USA Today...Barrons is still a financials focused publication), that's when you know the bottom (or top) is being established. The fundamentals (slowing demand and excess supply are very well understood by financial participants and the commodity's price discovery process ebbs and flows on waves of emotions and rationality).
 
KeithR said:
until DB stops going down, this market isn't going up.

has nothing to do with oil at this point, which to me bottomed after the waterfall a few weeks back. $20 Oil on the cover of Barron's was humorous this weekend.
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Deutsche Bank isn't some outlier, it's indicative of many other issues.

Here's the thing, with oil back down right now to a $27 handle, all of this commodity destruction (as a complex back to 1997 levels) is happening outside of a recession. With the Atlanta Fed revision US Q1 GDP to .1%, what happens to commodities from here when the World does slip into recession? The answer of course is they drop even further, possibly significantly.
 
FlexibleAudio said:
Ya, I guess what I am failing to get across is I don't trade. I do fundamental work and take positions accordingly. I don't try to time bottoms or tops. When I see value based on my work I get in (short or long). If it goes against me, I likely get more in. Most my stuff goes at least 3 to 5 years. Trading is nuts to me.
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And btw, I'll just say it even though it doesn't seem like you care to listen to my input. Buying USO as a long term investment is a terribly bad idea, all you have to do is look at it's historical performance tracking spot prices. USO is not meant to track spot long term, it's meant to track on a daily basis. Long term brings in all the costs involved with futures trading. For example, Dec 2016 is trading at $38. That means USO is buying Dec at $38, so if $38 spot price happens in December you see 0 return. Actually you'd see a loss because of all the other fees incurred during that period. The only way you see a return is if spot price exceeds the price they paid for that futures contract. And every month they have to renew their front month futures contracts, which further eats up any upside returns.

Just look at historical if you don't believe me. USO tracks very closely to the downside, but doesn't come close to tracking the upside. Your plan of holding 3-5 years is very unlikely to yield significant returns even if spot price does rebound sharply.

Why do I even bother sharing things like this? It's not from hubris or any belief I know better, I just don't like seeing people get hurt.
 
Quite right. The forward oil curve is usually in Contango and therefore the forward rolls inherent in USO will make anything other than very short term price spikes a losing proposition.
 
Vapor1 said:
And btw, I'll just say it even though it doesn't seem like you care to listen to my input. Buying USO as a long term investment is a terribly bad idea, all you have to do is look at it's historical performance tracking spot prices. USO is not meant to track spot long term, it's meant to track on a daily basis. Long term brings in all the costs involved with futures trading. For example, Dec 2016 is trading at $38. That means USO is buying Dec at $38, so if $38 spot price happens in December you see 0 return. Actually you'd see a loss because of all the other fees incurred during that period. The only way you see a return is if spot price exceeds the price they paid for that futures contract. And every month they have to renew their front month futures contracts, which further eats up any upside returns.

Just look at historical if you don't believe me. USO tracks very closely to the downside, but doesn't come close to tracking the upside. Your plan of holding 3-5 years is very unlikely to yield significant returns even if spot price does rebound sharply.

Why do I even bother sharing things like this? It's not from hubris or any belief I know better, I just don't like seeing people get hurt.
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Wow...that's absolutely correct by the way but I see now where FlexibleAudio suggested investing in the USO ETF. you seem to have a need to have the last word on the subject even though your response above is apropos of nothing since USO was not remotely suggested by anyone as the appropriate security to use to play a rebound in oil prices over the medium to long-term. :skeptical:
 
Vapor1 said:
Deutsche Bank isn't some outlier, it's indicative of many other issues.

Here's the thing, with oil back down right now to a $27 handle, all of this commodity destruction (as a complex back to 1997 levels) is happening outside of a recession. With the Atlanta Fed revision US Q1 GDP to .1%, what happens to commodities from here when the World does slip into recession? The answer of course is they drop even further, possibly significantly.
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I don't think CoCo bonds are a 2008 type event. I think people have recency bias and its aggravated by algos and ETFs.
 
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