Markets

Mike said:
As opposed to theories promoted by would be, so called, "experts"?
Click to expand...

No, as opposed to the facts on the ground. All the momentum and fundamentals point down, those are the facts. The only reason to think otherwise is some hope of reduced output, but the Sauds can't even get OPEC to convene for a meeting, much less get Russia to agree to the same level of cuts. And the last thing they'll do is cut without competitors doing the same, nobody is voluntarily going to give up market share. Even if someone does cut, that does nothing to address the underlying lack of Global demand.

Betting now on oil is a dangerous game. If the facts change, you'll have plenty of opportunity to bet long then.
 
Vapor1 said:
No, as opposed to the facts on the ground. All the momentum and fundamentals point down, those are the facts. The only reason to think otherwise is some hope of reduced output, but the Sauds can't even get OPEC to convene for a meeting, much less get Russia to agree to the same level of cuts. And the last thing they'll do is cut without competitors doing the same, nobody is voluntarily going to give up market share. Even if someone does cut, that does nothing to address the underlying lack of Global demand.

Betting now on oil is a dangerous game. If the facts change, you'll have plenty of opportunity to bet long then.
Click to expand...

No one said I am betting anything so chill the f*ck out.

Time will prove someone correct. I have no interest in an Internet debar about this.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
All this talk about markets, yet here I am debating over whether or not I should indulge in a dozen freshly-baked donuts tomorrow morning. Perhaps this is why I'll never own a snazzy music/hi-fi room. Ah well.
 
Just over a year ago I took my Canadian cash and bought american stocks last week I cashed it out took the gains and the currency bump went into a balanced fund for the next 2 months. Then I may go into oil as I feel it will rise in the next year.

I took my cash fund and bought 2 companies small ones losing money ( now making money ) Canadian cash is not a great place to be so I am buying what i know I can turn around . IMO gold is not a good place to be large corporations will make more gains in this market on average . Small caps will lose in this uncertain market Asia is to wild wild west for me. I have no training in investing been doing it for a while now I could cash out and retire but it is not me.
 
I've been hedging my traditional portfolios with shorting the dow in the futures market. Still tough to see my retirement accounts get hammered like this. Trading futures is so damn volatile but it's working out recently.
 
Vapor1 said:
No, as opposed to the facts on the ground. All the momentum and fundamentals point down, those are the facts. The only reason to think otherwise is some hope of reduced output, but the Sauds can't even get OPEC to convene for a meeting, much less get Russia to agree to the same level of cuts. And the last thing they'll do is cut without competitors doing the same, nobody is voluntarily going to give up market share. Even if someone does cut, that does nothing to address the underlying lack of Global demand.

Betting now on oil is a dangerous game. If the facts change, you'll have plenty of opportunity to bet long then.
Click to expand...

Ya I gotta call you on this one too Vap. Facts..... cmon dude. There are numerous scenarios that drive oil to double digit returns inside of 5 years. Not saying its going to happen but it certainly could. At these prices I see oil as a much better (including safer) play than bonds in that time horizon. A US dollar correction from its remarkable strengthening of the last 2 years alone could result in a 30% return on oil at its current price. Throw in supply reductions, be they on a coordinated basis in peace time or much worse scenarios, and upside is obvious to me. Certainly not refuted by "facts." Eventual demand recovery is incremental upside, likely not until year 5 and beyond.

BTW, I bought the USO ETF last week as well. Plan to buy more on the dips. But hey thats me and its based on my view of probabilities not facts.
 
Zero said:
All this talk about markets, yet here I am debating over whether or not I should indulge in a dozen freshly-baked donuts tomorrow morning. Perhaps this is why I'll never own a snazzy music/hi-fi room. Ah well.
Click to expand...

You're still young. You're smart too. In 20 or 30 years you can join the us old farts in worrying about your 401k!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Mike said:
You're still young. You're smart too. In 20 or 30 years you can join the us old farts in worrying about your 401k!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

In Canada we have RRSPs the canadian version of the US 401k . When I started the limit was 2K a year now it is 18% of income how does a 401K work
 
Garth - I left Canada in 2004, and the RRSP model in Canada absolutely blows away anything we have here.

You forgot all the other goodies - like brining forward unused room. Lifetime capital gains exemption too.

When I was 18 I started saving in my RRSP. It's a great, smart, straight forward, no nonsense program. Wish we had it here.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
FlexibleAudio said:
Ya I gotta call you on this one too Vap. Facts..... cmon dude. There are numerous scenarios that drive oil to double digit returns inside of 5 years. Not saying its going to happen but it certainly could. At these prices I see oil as a much better (including safer) play than bonds in that time horizon. A US dollar correction from its remarkable strengthening of the last 2 years alone could result in a 30% return on oil at its current price. Throw in supply reductions, be they on a coordinated basis in peace time or much worse scenarios, and upside is obvious to me. Certainly not refuted by "facts." Eventual demand recovery is incremental upside, likely not until year 5 and beyond.
Click to expand...


You're missing my point. I too could easily lay out numerous scenarios where oil will rebound at some point in the future. But as a former pro trader, AND an Atmospheric Scientist ... allow me make an analogy that draws on both.

When forecasting weather there's the saying "Don't forget to look out the window". And the same is true with trading. You can stare at charts all day, just like you can maps in meteorology. But if you don't incorporate what's happening right now in the real World, you're going to make a poor forecast.

The facts as I said are supply that greatly exceeds demand, and demand that's accelerating to the downside. Plenty of data to back that up. So why would you try and get out front of that train? Don't think oil can go any lower? Tell me why if demand continues collapsing, that it can't go to $20. If that happens, are you prepared to take a 50% loss?

Whereas if you just keep looking out the window, you can wait for the time when demand starts to pick back up. And when that happens, get into oil then. Trying to time the bottom is a fools game, and there's just no reason to do it.
 
Mike said:
Garth - I left Canada in 2004, and the RRSP model in Canada absolutely blows away anything we have here.

You forgot all the other goodies - like brining forward unused room. Lifetime capital gains exemption too.

When I was 18 I started saving in my RRSP. It's a great, smart, straight forward, no nonsense program. Wish we had it here.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

I started at 16 so did my wife as well a the tax free home owner ship plan
 
Vapor1 said:
You're missing my point. I too could easily lay out numerous scenarios where oil will rebound at some point in the future. But as a former pro trader, AND an Atmospheric Scientist ... allow me make an analogy that draws on both.

When forecasting weather there's the saying "Don't forget to look out the window". And the same is true with trading. You can stare at charts all day, just like you can maps in meteorology. But if you don't incorporate what's happening right now in the real World, you're going to make a poor forecast.

The facts as I said are supply that greatly exceeds demand, and demand that's accelerating to the downside. Plenty of data to back that up. So why would you try and get out front of that train? Don't think oil can go any lower? Tell me why if demand continues collapsing, that it can't go to $20. If that happens, are you prepared to take a 50% loss?

Whereas if you just keep looking out the window, you can wait for the time when demand starts to pick back up. And when that happens, get into oil then. Trying to time the bottom is a fools game, and there's just no reason to do it.
Click to expand...

So bonds are at 70 year highs and oil is at 40 year lows (on real terms) and your right and I am wrong cuz I fail to understand the here and now.
 
FlexibleAudio said:
So bonds are at 70 year highs and oil is at 40 year lows (on real terms) and your right and I am wrong cuz I fail to understand the here and now.
Click to expand...

You're still missing my point.

What will happen in the unforeseeable future is just that, unforeseeable. I'm not trying to say I somehow see the future, I'm only saying I can see what's happening outside the window today. No smart money trades on speculation, they trade with the facts on the ground. And those facts say there's no reason to see an oil price rebound any time soon. The only thing that would make that happen in the short-frame is the unforeseen, suppliers agreeing to significant production cuts. But if that happens, you can get in same day and only miss a small % of the move. But if you try to time the bottom, you could very well be wrong and take a 50% hit quickly.
 
Vapor1 said:
You're still missing my point.
What will happen in the unforeseeable future is just that, unforeseeable. I'm not trying to say I somehow see the future, I'm only saying I can see what's happening outside the window today. No smart money trades on speculation, they trade with the facts on the ground. And those facts say there's no reason to see an oil price rebound any time soon. The only thing that would make that happen in the short-frame is the unforeseen, suppliers agreeing to significant production cuts. But if that happens, you can get in same day and only miss a small % of the move. But if you try to time the bottom, you could very well be wrong and take a 50% hit quickly.
Click to expand...

Ya, I guess what I am failing to get across is I don't trade. I do fundamental work and take positions accordingly. I don't try to time bottoms or tops. When I see value based on my work I get in (short or long). If it goes against me, I likely get more in. Most my stuff goes at least 3 to 5 years. Trading is nuts to me.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top