Doomsday clock for global market crash strikes one minute to midnight

CPP said:
I was reading this a few days ago on what will cause it all to burst per a finance person at
Video: Doomsday clock for global market crash strikes one minute to midnight as central banks lose control - Telegraph

1 - China slowdown
2 - Commodity collapse
3 - Resource sector credit crisis
4 - Dominoes begin to fall
5 - Credit markets roll over
6 - Interest rate shock
7 - Bull market third longest on record
8 - Overvalued US market

Interesting take on the events to doomsday in global finance.
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The slow down must happen because the globe over built capacity as we levered up. So the things you reference like recession and deflation are coming. That will be bad. But the scary part is if countries keep postponing these events by printing money (trying to win a global market share battle for a piece of the shrinking pie) and then all of the bad stuff also occurs simultaneously with a currency collapse.
 
FlexibleAudio said:
The slow down must happen because the globe over built capacity as we levered up. So the things you reference like recession and deflation are coming. That will be bad. But the scary part is if countries keep postponing these events by printing money (trying to win a global market share battle for a piece of the shrinking pie) and then all of the bad stuff also occurs simultaneously with a currency collapse.
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Time to hide your money under the mattress or should we swap our paper money for gold and silver and come up with a way to saw pieces of it off when you head to the market to buy something?
 
mep said:
Time to hide your money under the mattress or should we swap our paper money for gold and silver and come up with a way to saw pieces of it off when you head to the market to buy something?
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As a famous bird once said.

The sky is falling the sky is falling.

The market is going to do what it is going to do invest in good things and wait.
 
Garth said:
As a famous bird once said.

The sky is falling the sky is falling.

The market is going to do what it is going to do invest in good things and wait.
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I take your point and don't want to be disrespectful, but this perspective is exactly why bubbles take so long to pop even when the metrics are right in front of everyone.
 
The market has been addicted to cheap money for a long time now and interest rates have been ridiculously low which means any money you keep in your local bank is earning nothing and the bank gets to use your money for free.
 
S&P Index Fund (or DOW index fund)
Sprinkle in some REIT's for good measure.
Add a heavy dose of high dividend paying stocks from the Fortune 500 (keeps them a little more honest than those that don't pay dividends).
Do it self directed, minimize fees. I've had good luck with TD AmeriTrade.

That's my strategy, but I've been sitting in an all cash position after selling everything in May. I felt very uneasy about DOW 18,000. Seemed like it was too high based on P:E ratios and other data.

Seems like my hunch was right.

I'm liking Oil & Gas upstream and downstream companies for a good slightly longer term play.

You need to be a bit of a contrarian I've found.

But if you're not a savvy investor, always good to work with a trusted professional with good references.
 
Q3 results will be interesting and also what the Fed does or doesn't do in September. My hunch is they will raise interest rates 1/4-1/2%, but after last week, I'm not so sure.
 
Mike said:
S&P Index Fund (or DOW index fund)
Sprinkle in some REIT's for good measure.
Add a heavy dose of high dividend paying stocks from the Fortune 500 (keeps them a little more honest than those that don't pay dividends).
Do it self directed, minimize fees. I've had good luck with TD AmeriTrade.

That's my strategy, but I've been sitting in an all cash position after selling everything in May. I felt very uneasy about DOW 18,000. Seemed like it was too high based on P:E ratios and other data.

Seems like my hunch was right.

I'm liking Oil & Gas upstream and downstream companies for a good slightly longer term play.

You need to be a bit of a contrarian I've found.

But if you're not a savvy investor, always good to work with a trusted professional with good references.
Click to expand...


Well your sell timing sure looks smart. When you get back in you might think about some foreign exposure. I fear the Saudis are hell bent on stifling our fracking business and if this Iran deal gets done I don't see much capital going into new development for a long while. High dividend stocks are a lot smarter than bonds. Its a weird time. You gotta have a hedge on for deflation cuz of all the excess global capacity and an over levered consumer but you also need to hedge possible inflation cuz of all the money printing. We have never really experienced anything like this condition.
 
I agree with you Paul on the strategy of the Saudi's. I think we said this several months ago and some didn't want to believe it.

I'm researching Peurto Rico bonds right now. There are a couple of good ones (for diversification purposes)....but their history, even recent history of not making payments scares the hell out of me.

The game I can't figure out (and have never even tried) is the currency game. The guys that do that must be nuts!

All I know is that Canada might be soon renaming the Loonie to the Peso. [emoji6]
 
Mike said:
I agree with you Paul on the strategy of the Saudi's. I think we said this several months ago and some didn't want to believe it.

I'm researching Peurto Rico bonds right now. There are a couple of good ones (for diversification purposes)....but their history, even recent history of not making payments scares the hell out of me.

The game I can't figure out (and have never even tried) is the currency game. The guys that do that must be nuts!

All I know is that Canada might be soon renaming the Loonie to the Peso. [emoji6]
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Mike...stay away from Puerto Rico bonds no matter the yield. PR is North America's Greece = no touchie :no:

Whole point of buying Munis is to get a safe and tax-efficient yielding asset that will let you sleep at night. These babies have the potential of giving you nightmares.
 
Mike said:
I agree with you Paul on the strategy of the Saudi's. I think we said this several months ago and some didn't want to believe it.

I'm researching Peurto Rico bonds right now. There are a couple of good ones (for diversification purposes)....but their history, even recent history of not making payments scares the hell out of me.

The game I can't figure out (and have never even tried) is the currency game. The guys that do that must be nuts!

All I know is that Canada might be soon renaming the Loonie to the Peso. [emoji6]
Click to expand...

Who doesn't understand that the Saudis intended to make the fracking business non-profitable? They helped flood the market with oil which drove down the price per barrel and made fracking cost-prohibitive. The long-term problem I see with this strategy is that the oil producing countries have to keep the price of oil below the point where it becomes profitable for the fracking industry to come back from the dead and they don't like the fact that they can't set the price of oil on the world market to their advantage.
 
Sunday night, futures tanking again. All that matters this week is does the Fed "say" something that reverses course. If so, it will likely be short lived.
 
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