Doomsday clock for global market crash strikes one minute to midnight

As it's been said over and over by numerous financial experts, you cannot time the market. That's the approach I take with my investments, and over the long haul it has always worked out as history shows. Still given that fact it often gets difficult to maintain your long term investments when things head south, and that fear and panic is what can drive the market down further. History also shows that most investors that sell off their holdings in difficult times most often then miss out on the market rebound that later comes. So I am not much of a trader, I buy and hold the majority of my investments and it all works out in time.
 
I don't try to time the market. Select good quality low cost investments (ETFs or Funds) and invest for the long term. I also work to keep my potfolio balanced. And invest consistently. Been doing that since 1986 when I first opened a brokerage account - so far so good...
 
The real danger is the Sovereign debt market. With all the easy money for years, fiat papers is not what it used to be and one can expect that at least in Europe the next big fish target is ...FRANCE!

If France comes into play, all bets are off and you know what hits the fans probably GLOBALLY.

Oh, and if Germany tries to leave the Euro, they are screwed. Money will flock to the new D-Mark and the value will skyrocket, killing German export competitiveness.

All major currencies are in a race to the bottom. All Govts want the weakest currencies now, no matter what they claim. China jumped off to a head start...
 
The real danger is the one we don't see coming.
RITMO has it right, within the parameters of your ability (psychological and financial) to weather volatility and meet your liquidity needs out 3-5 years.
 
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Or the one you do expect but no idea when and in what form it hits.

Take the Greek people, for example. For a while they could not even get to their cash.

When we move to virtual money (electronic), there can no longer be a run on the banks for cash, problem solved (for the Banks)...Easy peasey, lemon squeezie. LoL
 
Since we can't predict the market downturns, money we invest for the long term is better off staying invested and riding the waves, to the extent we can stomach the volatility. (Conventional wisdom has had rates rising for 4 years, and counting.)

Everyone saw the Greek crisis coming. Where to locate our investments is part of the risks we select and assume.

How does electronic money change anything; banks can close there doors today, and do/did?
 
The bull market in the US has been running for 77 months now, approximately. That's 6 1/2 years. The market here is overdue for a correction, which might be steep, might not, but I think it would be welcome by long term investors.

Then again, 2016 is an election year and there haven't been any losing years in 76 years. Doesn't mean it can't happen though.

My prediction ... we are in the summer doldrums and pretty much idling right now. I think things could dip down to their support points @ 2040 on the S&P (4% down from the peak) or maybe the next one at 1975 (7% down) but probably not the big drop down to 1860 (12.5% down). Though that big drop would constitute an actual correction. But I do believe we could be right back up above 2100 by year end and make new highs next year.

My strategy is to buy a little more between 2020-2040, and a little more if it goes down through 2000, and to sell off some profits above 2120, and to rebuild my 2-3 year cash needs by election day.
 
The market here is overdue for a correction... true, but which people have been saying for several years now.
You are speculating- which is all fine and good, but that's not what I would term 'investing'. Where the market will be 6 months from now is simply guessing. History suggests strongly the market will be higher 5 years from now. If ones time horizon is in months rather than years, they should base their expectations accordingly.
 
audio.bill said:
As it's been said over and over by numerous financial experts, you cannot time the market. That's the approach I take with my investments, and over the long haul it has always worked out as history shows. Still given that fact it often gets difficult to maintain your long term investments when things head south, and that fear and panic is what can drive the market down further. History also shows that most investors that sell off their holdings in difficult times most often then miss out on the market rebound that later comes. So I am not much of a trader, I buy and hold the majority of my investments and it all works out in time.
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Mike said:
I'm predicting October, doesn't it always seem to happen in October?
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I think the anticipation of a dramatic fall has generally become a self-fulfilling prophecy. The discussion of possible impact due to certain events leads many investors to sell off, thereby triggering the fall that was predicted.
 
asindc said:
I think the anticipation of a dramatic fall has generally become a self-fulfilling prophecy. The discussion of possible impact due to certain events leads many investors to sell off, thereby triggering the fall that was predicted.
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Actually, it's exactly the opposite. When everyone is worried about the impending correction/bear market and it permeates the headlines is when markets go up (the proverbial "markets climb a wall of worry"). Why? Because when pessimism is climbing and/or peaking, market participants (by which I mean the big institutional investors: mutual funds, hedge funds, pension plans, etc...) have positioned themselves for an impending correction, which usually entails selling off their winners to build up cash reserves so they can take advantage of a correction when it happens, or they layer on Shorts (whether outright Shorting or synthetically using Options) to insure holdings in their portfolio (if they believe correction is short-lived) or put on more aggressive Shorts (if they believe the contraction will be deep and long-lasting) as a directional bet on the market. Well if the big market participants are net short then there is little incremental selling pressure (remember prices are set by the next incremental trade). And when folks are pessimistic, typically expectations for corporate earnings and macro economic fundamentals are also at low levels, so even neutral information beats expectations let alone good news. And if you continue to get neutral to ok earnings and macro economic fundamentals after each wave of pessimism, then the shorts need to cover and the next incremental trade is up.

So big downward spirals typically happen at the point of maximum complacency when everyone believes things are great and will continue to be great because everyone is all in and there is very little incremental buying flows and expectations for corporate earnings and macro fundamentals are also very high, setting the ground for disappointments to shock the market when they occur.
 
These predictions occur like clock work. Eventually, a correction will happen, and the last person to have made the same prediction will get treated as some sort of financial genius for predicting it.
 
It is late summer & we've had a pullback, like we do most summers (e.g. sell in May and go away). And in late summer the market always talks of pullbacks, especially after 2nd quarter lax earnings. This talk is nothing new. I think we have one more good rally by year end, unless earnings in the second half are really affected badly by the strong dollar.

And please don't get me wrong, I am a long view investor. When I am talking about making some moves I am thinking no more than 5% of my portfolio to take some profits or invest at a low point.
 
I sure hope all you guys aren't complacent in thinking the next crash will be like ones of the past, it won't. The sheer size of debt expansion and leverage ratios that have exploded, along with Central Banks around the World being out of ammo to combat deflation should give you all reason to protect assets in ways much more than just diversification and patience. The US passed laws in 2011 that give ability to confiscate bank deposits and other assets, the "it'll never happen here mentality" isn't going to protect you.

Central Banks have been managing intentionally this boom and bust cycle for the last 40 years to great effect for the 1%ers, but they've now lost control and the result when something breaks will be catastrophic. A hit to your 401K will be the least of your worries.
 
I don't think the sky is falling, Joe and I buy too many amps to have that happen, but I do have this feeling we will see DOW 14,000 or 15,000 by October.
 
Ryan, I alluded to all that but the message is hard for people to swallow…even for the messenger. We were this close to calamity with LTCM and that is a long time ago.
 
Charts sure look ominous.

Another big issue among so many big issues that came to light in a big way since 2007-2008 are the derivatives market.
 
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