Coronavirus Live Updates

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I'd like to formally extend my apologies to Calvin (Joe) regarding my reply to his post about the news media yesterday with respect to the COVID-19 outbreak. I posted a reply about Dr. Anthony Fauci that was factual, but several members may have only read my reply, and thus, may have formed an assumption that Joe had made inaccurate statements about Dr. Fauci, which he did not.

Upon reflection, I could have written that post in a way that represented where I was obtaining my information from Dr. Fauci's statements made on television media in a way that wouldn't have resulted in any mis-interpretation, so that was my bad on my part.

He created this post to help inform people with respect to information about this outbreak and I fully support his efforts in that.

So, with that, I sincerely extend my apologies to Joe and to any folks that may have mis-interpreted his, or my, post.

And in that spirit of community, here is what I've found to be a very informative link about current status. It has more details per country, and one can select to view a narrower set of the overall data:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
 
Growth of COVID-19 cases as of today, March 10. COVID-19 is now entering an exponential phase of spread in the U.S. This matches exactly its epidemiological spread in other countries that are in this phase:

COViD-19%20USA%203-10.jpg
 
Many major Bay Area companies are imposing work from home policy for either 2 weeks or until end of the month. Google/Alphabet, Facebook, Twitter, Apple, Broadcom, Nutanix, Microsoft, HP, Intel, Amazon, Workday to name a few. I think many others will follow suit within this week.
 
In Austria:

Outdoor: alls events >500 persons forbidden.

Indoor: all events > 100 persons forbidden.

All universities closed; all concerts, opera's, expo's cancelled. football without visitors.

Border to italy closed.
 
Puma Cat said:
Growth of COVID-19 cases as of today, March 10. COVID-19 is now entering an exponential phase of spread in the U.S. This matches exactly its epidemiological spread in other countries that are in this phase:

COViD-19%20USA%203-10.jpg
Click to expand...

This looks exactly like Italy just a few days back. They have over 10.000 diagnosed cases right now, with over 600 deaths so far. The median of patients is 65, which means that half of those people is younger than 65 years of age.

I have read somwhere that some ppl over 80s are not admited to the ICUs, as their chances of survival are too small (which the prof. from the vid I posted basicly confirmed). With limited resources, doctors would rather treat younger people, with higher chances of survival (and longer life expectancy). This is basicly a war zone policy.

Found it:
https://www.politico.eu/article/coronavirus-italy-doctors-tough-calls-survival/
 
Elberoth said:
This looks exactly like Italy just a few days back. They have over 10.000 diagnosed cases right now, with over 600 deaths so far. The median of patients is 65, which means that half of those people is younger than 65 years of age.

I have read somwhere that some ppl over 80s are not admited to the ICUs, as their chances of survival are too small (which the prof. from the vid I posted basicly confirmed). With limited resources, doctors would rather treat younger people, with higher chances of survival (and longer life expectancy). This is basicly a war zone policy.

Found it:
https://www.politico.eu/article/coronavirus-italy-doctors-tough-calls-survival/
Click to expand...

Yes, I would predict that would be the case; the epidemiological "kinetics" have not changed, its just the U.S. is about 10 days behind Italy with respect to the initial cases. The R0 is likely the same in both countries; my guess is because of the R0, the virus has spread more quickly than the time it would need to mutate to a different R0, or level of virulence. The count of infected persons in the USA will likely tick over 1,000 before tomorrow. It was ~500 yesterday. I heard an epidemiologist predict today that in 6 weeks, we could have over 60,000 cases of infected persons in the U.S.
 
kzhtoo said:
Many major Bay Area companies are imposing work from home policy for either 2 weeks or until end of the month. Google/Alphabet, Facebook, Twitter, Apple, Broadcom, Nutanix, Microsoft, HP, Intel, Amazon, Workday to name a few. I think many others will follow suit within this week.
Click to expand...

I wonder what everyone is really thinking by a select few working remotely and the others on the frontline conducting efforts - no different than the military, getting the job done.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
 
kzhtoo said:
Many major Bay Area companies are imposing work from home policy for either 2 weeks or until end of the month. Google/Alphabet, Facebook, Twitter, Apple, Broadcom, Nutanix, Microsoft, HP, Intel, Amazon, Workday to name a few. I think many others will follow suit within this week.
Click to expand...

My wife got back home on the weekend after being in London and the North of Italy for 1 month. My wife has zero symptoms

I am now working from home for 14 days quarantine from work, which is a multinational. they have a pretty strong BCM program.
 
RickS said:
Watched this yesterday and thought it was very informative.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw
Click to expand...


In the first 5 minutes of the above video Michael Osterholm Ph.D, a health scientist, biosecurity and infectious disease expert, outlines his conservative projected impact of Covid-19 in the US:


Over the next 3 to 7 months

Ro = 2.5, doubling time 7-10 days
96 million cases
4.8 million hospital admissions
Over 480,000 deaths


His advice, avoid large public spaces.
 
I saw this from a tweet on March 5 by Jacob Canfield who is a financial statistical modeler, but also has a background in biology and studies infectious diseases as a personal interest. This model was fairly sound, but it appears, conservative:

From Jacob:
Back of the napkin estimate of possible Covid-19 spread in the USA.

Assumptions (IF):
- R0 = 3
- infectious period: 30d
- US infected today: 34×3=102

Projected # of infections:
2,700 in 3 months
75k in 6 months
2M in 9 months
54M in 12 months


It appears that his initial estimate of cases was conservative, because, in my estimation, we will be at 2,700 by next week (if not sooner). We are into the exponential increase in cases phase presently, so we could be at >2,000 cases by the weekend.
 
Micheal Osterholm, infectious disease expert at the University of Minnesota warned us in 2005.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/10/opinions/osterholm-coronavirus-interview-bergen/index.html

He says the RO will be 2.0 - 2.5

The virus itself is not the real killer as most who are infected will recover.
Most deaths will happen due to the inability of medical facilities to treat the increasing number of severely effected people.
Shear numbers of patients over taxing an ill-prepared and under supplied health care system.
 
Gene said:
Micheal Osterholm, infectious disease expert at the University of Minnesota warned us in 2005.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/10/opinions/osterholm-coronavirus-interview-bergen/index.html

He says the RO will be 2.0 - 2.5

The virus itself is not the real killer as most who are infected will recover.
Most deaths will happen due to the inability of medical facilities to treat the increasing number of severely effected people.
Shear numbers of patients over taxing an ill-prepared and under supplied health care system.
Click to expand...

Just to put some things into perspective, the Spanish Influenza of 1918, where an estimated 500 million people died, had an R0 of 1.8. "Regular" Influenza B has an R0 of ~1.3. With an R0 > than the Spanish flu, and approximately 2X than of H3N2, this is still a signficant level of infectiousness (virulence). Also, with current lethality index of 3.5 to 3.7, this is > 30X the lethality index of most influenzas that go around every winter. This virus is no joke..
 
Puma Cat said:
Just to put some things into perspective, the Spanish Influenza of 1918, where an estimated 500 million people died, had an R0 of 1.8. "Regular" Influenza B has an R0 of ~1.3. With an R0 > than the Spanish flu, and approximately 2X than of H3N2, this is still a signficant level of infectiousness (virulence). Also, with current lethality index of 3.5 to 3.7, this is > 30X the lethality index of most influenzas that go around every winter. This virus is no joke..
Click to expand...

The mortality rate is currently 6.6% in Italy. Scary.

Ken
 
Alpinist said:
The mortality rate is currently 6.6% in Italy. Scary.

Ken
Click to expand...

Yes. I have a personal hypothesis that a new strain of COVID evolved in Italy that is more virulent. Viral strains will mutate if they pass through enough individuals. There is a likelihood that the strain in Italy in some individuals is no longer COVID-19, its COVID-X.

This pattern of organism mutation is what evolutionary biologists call "selection pressure". The theory behind selection pressure is that organisms will evolve to a higher state of "fitness" (fitness being defined as the ability to survive long enough to reproduce). This was the public health problem for managing HIV, for example, is that the virus mutated exceptionally rapidly.
 
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