To jab or not to jab

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TheOctopus

TheOctopus

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Thread for the discussion of the COVID vaccines within the guidelines of the forum. No politics and no conspiracy theories that are unproven and hence useless to the topic please. It will take some effort to get around politics of course but please do try and spare Mike from having to moderate and close this thread down. :scholar:

I'll start. I'd like to point out one very obvious fact...

2019 and before COVID came to town.


Summary
In 2019, a total of 2,854,838 resident deaths were registered in the United States—15,633 more deaths than in 2018. From 2018 to 2019, the age-adjusted death rate for the total population decreased 1.2%, and life expectancy at birth increased 0.1 year. Age-specific death rates between 2018 and 2019 decreased for age groups 45–54, 65–74, 75–84, and 85 and over, and increased for age group 35–44. Age-adjusted death rates decreased for non-Hispanic black males and females and non-Hispanic white males and females.

The 10 leading causes of death in 2019 remained the same as in 2018, although 2 causes exchanged ranks. Influenza and pneumonia, the eighth leading cause in 2018, became the ninth leading cause in 2019, while kidney disease, the ninth leading cause in 2018, became the eighth leading cause in 2019 (1). Age-adjusted death rates decreased for seven leading causes and increased for one. Life expectancy at birth increased 0.1 year from 78.7 years in 2018 to 78.8 in 2019, largely because of decreases in mortality from cancer, chronic lower respiratory diseases, influenza and pneumonia, suicide, and stroke.




Mortality Rates 2020 with COVID in town topped 3 Million and is estimated at 3.2 Million.


Population US 2019 328.2 million



Population US 2020 330million


Population US 2021 (so far....) 331 Million


Top leading causes of death 2020 Top causes of death in the United States in 2020: Heart disease, cancer and COVID-19

top-causes-death-united-states-heart-disease-cancer-and-covid-19





How many tests were false positive??? Potential for False Positive Results with Antigen Tests for Rapid Detection of SARS-CoV-2 - Letter to Clinical Laboratory Staff and Health Care Providers | FDA
 
How many people die from medical malpractice yearly?


Study Suggests Medical Errors Now Third Leading Cause of Death in the U.S. Study Suggests Medical Errors Now Third Leading Cause of Death in the U.S. - 05/03/2016


nalyzing medical death rate data over an eight-year period, Johns Hopkins patient safety experts have calculated that more than 250,000 deaths per year are due to medical error in the U.S. Their figure, published May 3 in The BMJ, surpasses the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC’s) third leading cause of death — respiratory disease, which kills close to 150,000 people per year.
 
More facts.

In the period March 15, 2020 - March 15, 2021 the number of actual deaths in the US exceeded the expected number of deaths, based on a 5 year average, by 565,000. In addition, during that period, 484,000 deaths were reported due to COVID.

My opinion.

The number of deaths due to COVID are understated. Of course, defining a COVID death is complicated since one could argue that if hospitals are at capacity and cannot treat a patient with another illness could might have otherwise survived it should be called a COVID death.
 
Perhaps a better way to proceed would be to ask the question...why would you NOT get vaccinated against a potentially deadly infection if you have the opportunity to do that??
The answer from Anti-Vaxers is going to be dependent on a number of personal issues...including religious beliefs, conspiracy theories ( to which there are always numerous numbers of these), long and short term safety concerns and other social mores that may or may not be a factor.
Looking at statistics is interesting, BUT if YOU happen to be the one in a million that is impacted, try then arguing that it is a conspiracy theory and only happens to someone else...
 
How To Overcome Vaccine Hesitancy and Barriers in Hawaiʻi? Targeted Communication, UH Report Says

March 23, 2021, 12:12 PM HST


Targeted communications strategies may hold the key to encouraging more eligible people to get vaccinated, according to a recent UH report: “Communicating about COVID-19 Vaccinations: Recommendations for Hawaiʻi.”

UH Reserachers conducted a study to find out what are the barriers and hesitancy of people getting the COVID-19 vaccine in Hawaii.

With COVID-19 vaccines now more readily available in Hawaiʻi, the state’s next major public health challenge is getting people vaccinated and overcoming vaccine hesitancy. To address this issue, a team of researchers at the University of Hawai‘i Mānoa College of Social Sciences conducted a study that found targeted communications strategies may hold the key to encouraging more eligible people to get vaccinated.

The study, “Communicating about COVID-19 Vaccinations: Recommendations for Hawaiʻi,” identified four primary types of barriers to vaccination:

Access: Problems associated with actually getting vaccinated, such as difficulty in traveling to vaccination sites or scheduling appointments, or vaccine shortages.

Perceived harm: Concerns about the safety of or negative impact of the vaccine on health.

Mistrust: Beliefs that the government, scientists, pharmaceutical companies or medical establishments are not trustworthy and/or that vaccines are neither necessary nor effective.

Specific Beliefs: The belief that the vaccine was developed “too fast” and thus may not be safe.

Researchers looked at data from Hawaiʻi adults who have not yet received the vaccine to identify common barriers and provided communication strategies to address them as part of UH’s Health Policy Initiative. Research team members include:

Jessica Gasiorek, associate professor, Department of Communicology
Amy Ebesu Hubbard, professor and chair, Department of Communicology
Hye-ryeon Lee, professor, Department of Communicology
Ruben Juarez, professor, Department of Economics and UHERO
Jack Barile, interim director, Social Science Research Institute; associate professor, Department of Psychology

“Here in Hawaiʻi, 31% of the adult population have received at least one dose, and 36% have indicated that they will definitely get the vaccine,” report co-author Professor Ebesu Hubbard said.

Professor Lee added: “The complication is that, while individuals may say they will get a vaccine, for several reasons, they may not be able to follow through. This issue, along with 30% of Hawaiʻi adults expressing hesitancy about receiving a vaccine, is a concern.”

“Will definitely get the vaccine”

36% of respondents reported they will “definitely” get the vaccine. This group, which tends to be older, primarily faces access barriers, such as the inability to obtain a vaccination appointment due to a lack of computer access/skills or busy phone lines; the need for transportation to and from a vaccination site; or the inability to take off time from work.

Messaging to this group should come from trusted sources such as the Department of Health, scientists, medical professionals, professional/organizational leaders and community leaders. It should focus on reducing access barriers and providing concrete “calls to action.” For example, clearly announcing when new groups are eligible; informing the public that assistance is available to make online vaccination appointments and when transportation is available to and from vaccination sites; and encouraging employers to provide workers with paid time-off from work.

“Will probably get the vaccine”

19% of respondents report that they will “probably” get vaccinated. This group, which includes individuals with different levels of education and of whom half are between 25-54 years of age, reports concerns about perceived harm and a deference to others as reasons for being hesitant.

“The vaccine hesitancy for this segment is driven by concerns about vaccine safety and side effects, as well as a feeling that there are others who may need the vaccine more,” said Professor Gasiorek, the report’s co-author. “To address these barriers, it is important to acknowledge that, while side effects can occur, most reactions are normal and not dangerous. It will take time to persuade this group that the vaccine is safe, effective and beneficial for them to receive. Because of this, messages targeting this group should begin now, even though vaccine supplies are still in short supply.”

“Will probably NOT get the vaccine”

9% report that they will “probably not” get vaccinated. This group is generally younger, with less formal education, and is disproportionately non-White and non-Asian, with the majority identifying with two or more races. This group shares concerns about safety and side effects with other groups but is also concerned about whether a vaccine will work. They are generally a bit more skeptical of this vaccine.

“Communication strategies for this group should address these concerns, as well as their mistrust. It is recommended that messaging come from friends, religious leaders or respected community elders that these individuals trust rather than government officials or scientists,” Juarez said.

“Will definitely NOT get the vaccine”

3% report that they will “definitely not” get the vaccine. Younger and with less formal education, this group is disproportionately female. Relative to Hawaiʻi’s population, individuals identifying as White or as two or more races are over represented. This group is strongly anti-vaccine and anti-vaccination and does not trust vaccines or the government.

The report said it is highly unlikely these group members can be persuaded to change their minds. The most effective approach may involve the implementation of policies or regulations for certain activities. For example, making vaccinations mandatory to access air travel, or requiring them to work at or to patronize certain businesses, might motivate people in this group to get vaccinated.
 
Pearce Harrison said:
Perhaps a better way to proceed would be to ask the question...why would you NOT get vaccinated against a potentially deadly infection if you have the opportunity to do that??
The answer from Anti-Vaxers is going to be dependent on a number of personal issues...including religious beliefs, conspiracy theories ( to which there are always numerous numbers of these), long and short term safety concerns and other social mores that may or may not be a factor.
Looking at statistics is interesting, BUT if YOU happen to be the one in a million that is impacted, try then arguing that it is a conspiracy theory and only happens to someone else...
Click to expand...

There are many reasons in my mind why certain lower risk groups should not be vaccinated until we have had more time to make sure it is all safe. It is one thing for an 85 year old to get a vaccine because of the immediate risk from COVID and a totally different scenario for a 25 year old getting vaccinated to have some unforeseen problems early on in life to struggle with. It could potentially be a multitude of unforeseen problems down the road.

These facts do not help to convince me otherwise.


“Only hours after AstraZeneca announced encouraging news about the effectiveness of its Covid-19 vaccine on Monday, a group of medical experts charged with monitoring the company’s clinical trial made a highly unusual accusation: AstraZeneca had essentially cherry-picked data to make its vaccine look better.

The accusation, in a two-page letter sent Monday to the company and federal officials, was a fresh blow to the credibility of a vaccine whose low price and relatively easy storage have made it critical to the global fight against the coronavirus pandemic.

The private letter, which was described by people who have read it, castigated AstraZeneca for jeopardizing the integrity of a closely watched clinical trial.

“Decisions like this are what erode public trust in the scientific process,” the oversight board wrote.”

‘
 
The AZ vaccine has not been approved in the US but 3 others have. All 3 have close to a 100% efficacy against hospitalization and death.

One of the issues with perceived low risk groups not getting vaccinated is that they can still spread it to unvaccinated people in higher risk groups. In addition, how does someone really now they are low risk? There have been countless deaths among young people who thought they were completely healthy.
 
TheOctopus said:
There are many reasons in my mind why certain lower risk groups should not be vaccinated until we have had more time to make sure it is all safe. It is one thing for an 85 year old to get a vaccine because of the immediate risk from COVID and a totally different scenario for a 25 year old getting vaccinated to have some unforeseen problems early on in life to struggle with. It could potentially be a multitude of unforeseen problems down the road.

These facts do not help to convince me otherwise.

“Only hours after AstraZeneca announced encouraging news about the effectiveness of its Covid-19 vaccine on Monday, a group of medical experts charged with monitoring the company’s clinical trial made a highly unusual accusation: AstraZeneca had essentially cherry-picked data to make its vaccine look better.

The accusation, in a two-page letter sent Monday to the company and federal officials, was a fresh blow to the credibility of a vaccine whose low price and relatively easy storage have made it critical to the global fight against the coronavirus pandemic.

The private letter, which was described by people who have read it, castigated AstraZeneca for jeopardizing the integrity of a closely watched clinical trial.

“Decisions like this are what erode public trust in the scientific process,” the oversight board wrote.”

‘
Click to expand...

Actually the charge against Astra Zeneca was not that they had "cherry picked" data, but that they had included data that was out of date and not within the cut-off deadlines for said data to be considered as valid. This was considered by Dr. Fauci as a unforeseen error and not intentional.
While your point about age consideration is also valid, there is considerable evidence that even younger people who come down with Covid can be impacted very negatively in ways that are unknown as to the longevity and overall impact on their future health, this is a fact. What is NOT a fact is how the vaccination will impact the younger generation in future years...the more common RNA based vaccinations, due to their newer technology fall into this group. However, the older ( and therefore more mature) technology that J&J uses does not.
 
dminches said:
The AZ vaccine has not been approved in the US but 3 others have. All 3 have close to a 100% efficacy against hospitalization and death.

One of the issues with perceived low risk groups not getting vaccinated is that they can still spread it to unvaccinated people in higher risk groups. In addition, how does someone really now they are low risk? There have been countless deaths among young people who thought they were completely healthy.
Click to expand...
Countless deaths among the young? The young also die from cancer, aneurisms, heart attacks and a bunch of other things. Statistics help a lot here. Young COVID deaths are statistically low.

Opioid/drug abuse deaths were about the same.... but there is no vaccine for that...

Pneumonia is the single largest cause of death in children worldwide. Every year, it kills an estimated 1.4 million children... There is a vaccine for pneumonia for kids as well as the adults... yet both die from pneumonia and in the case of the elderly, it is one of the leading causes of death. Why isn’t everyone getting vaccinated?
 
TheOctopus said:
Countless deaths among the young? The young also die from cancer, aneurisms, heart attacks and a bunch of other things. Statistics help a lot here. Young COVID deaths are statistically low.

Opioid/drug abuse deaths were about the same.... but there is no vaccine for that...

Pneumonia is the single largest cause of death in children worldwide. Every year, it kills an estimated 1.4 million children... There is a vaccine for pneumonia for kids as well as the adults... yet both die from pneumonia and in the case of the elderly, it is one of the leading causes of death. Why isn’t everyone getting vaccinated?
Click to expand...

Pneumonia is what you will die from when you have Covid. So while the statistics of dying from Covid among the young are low, they are not zero! Which is what they can be if we achieve herd immunity, or that enough of the young and others are vaccinated.
 
TheOctopus said:
Countless deaths among the young? The young also die from cancer, aneurisms, heart attacks and a bunch of other things. Statistics help a lot here. Young COVID deaths are statistically low.

Opioid/drug abuse deaths were about the same.... but there is no vaccine for that...

Pneumonia is the single largest cause of death in children worldwide. Every year, it kills an estimated 1.4 million children... There is a vaccine for pneumonia for kids as well as the adults... yet both die from pneumonia and in the case of the elderly, it is one of the leading causes of death. Why isn’t everyone getting vaccinated?
Click to expand...

I don’t understand that logic. Because kids die from cancer they shouldn’t try to avoid death or long term illness by being vaccinated? Should they also not wear seatbelts because they can die from something else?

Sorry, your reasoning makes no sense to me.

Yes, deaths are low but who knows about long term health issues? Young athletes have been shown to have enlarged hearts. I have no idea what happens when they get older.

I am not saying they have to get vaccinated but it isn’t so clear they shouldn’t.

The real issue is that 35-40% of Americans say they won’t get vaccinated. The virus will not go away for a long time if that is the case.
 
TheOctopus said:
Countless deaths among the young? The young also die from cancer, aneurisms, heart attacks and a bunch of other things. Statistics help a lot here. Young COVID deaths are statistically low.

Opioid/drug abuse deaths were about the same.... but there is no vaccine for that...

Pneumonia is the single largest cause of death in children worldwide. Every year, it kills an estimated 1.4 million children... There is a vaccine for pneumonia for kids as well as the adults... yet both die from pneumonia and in the case of the elderly, it is one of the leading causes of death. Why isn’t everyone getting vaccinated?
Click to expand...

Here in British Columbia, Canada, the latest news is that more and more young people get the virus variant (from UK) and end up in intensive care (some even die). It is worrisome to the health chiefs.

Serious COVID-19 cases on the rise among younger people in B.C., health officials say | CBC News

Number of cases are starting to go up, particularly in Ontario.

Canada's Ontario says it's in the Covid-19 third wave -- and officials worry the vaccine rollout may not happen fast enough
- CNN

...Here too, in BC.

Anyway, the variants are in and the youngs don't escape them. Schoolteachers are about to get their jab. It is very slow in Canada, too slow, I'm listening to Calypso.

Brazil? Lots of jabs needed there right now.
 
dminches said:
I don’t understand that logic. Because kids die from cancer they shouldn’t try to avoid death or long term illness by being vaccinated? Should they also not wear seatbelts because they can die from something else?

Sorry, your reasoning makes no sense to me.

Yes, deaths are low but who knows about long term health issues? Young athletes have been shown to have enlarged hearts. I have no idea what happens when they get older.

I am not saying they have to get vaccinated but it isn’t so clear they shouldn’t.

The real issue is that 35-40% of Americans say they won’t get vaccinated. The virus will not go away for a long time if that is the case.
Click to expand...

The logic that Octopus uses for his argument has many tentacles, lol Although I totally agree that it makes no sense to me either.
 
dminches said:
I don’t understand that logic. Because kids die from cancer they shouldn’t try to avoid death or long term illness by being vaccinated? Should they also not wear seatbelts because they can die from something else?

Sorry, your reasoning makes no sense to me.

Yes, deaths are low but who knows about long term health issues? Young athletes have been shown to have enlarged hearts. I have no idea what happens when they get older.

I am not saying they have to get vaccinated but it isn’t so clear they shouldn’t.

The real issue is that 35-40% of Americans say they won’t get vaccinated. The virus will not go away for a long time if that is the case.
Click to expand...

I’m against vaccinating kids and the young population without having a good long term trial. Anything else is putting the future generations at potential risk. We have the past history to refer back to. Historical Safety Concerns | Vaccine Safety | CDC

The J&J may be a more conventional vaccine but show me long term safety of mRNA vaccines they are going to use on our kids... insanity in my opinion.
 
TheOctopus said:
I’m against vaccinating kids and the young population without having a good long term trial. Anything else is putting the future generations at potential risk. We have the past history to refer back to. Historical Safety Concerns | Vaccine Safety | CDC

The J&J may be a more conventional vaccine but show me long term safety of mRNA vaccines they are going to use on our kids... insanity in my opinion.
Click to expand...

Even the Kids with lung and heart conditions?
 
Pearce Harrison said:
Yes, that is also correct, but please explain how that changes for the better with Covid?
Click to expand...

It doesn’t. People still died from all kinds of conditions with and without COVID. People will continue dying from the same same old problems even after everyone is vaccinated. Let’s hope the vaccines do not add new problems to deal with. We simply do not know. The reckless speed and aggressive push for vaccinations for a disease that threatens less than 1% of the population is absurd. There are no guarantees of safety and they are immune to litigation since the vaccine is experimental and under the PREP Act, companies like Pfizer, JJ and Moderna have total immunity from liability if something unintentionally goes wrong with their vaccines.
 
TheOctopus said:
I’m against vaccinating kids and the young population without having a good long term trial. Anything else is putting the future generations at potential risk. We have the past history to refer back to. Historical Safety Concerns | Vaccine Safety | CDC

The J&J may be a more conventional vaccine but show me long term safety of mRNA vaccines they are going to use on our kids... insanity in my opinion.
Click to expand...

So I guess you would have been against vaccinating kids against measles, small pox, polio and all the other diseases kids are protected against? None of these had long term trials before they were used universally? We all survived.
 
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