Markets

cmalak said:
Wow...that's absolutely correct by the way but I see now where FlexibleAudio suggested investing in the USO ETF. you seem to have a need to have the last word on the subject even though your response above is apropos of nothing since USO was not remotely suggested by anyone as the appropriate security to use to play a rebound in oil prices over the medium to long-term. :skeptical:
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What other USO am I talking about other than the ETF?

And please stop trying to make the discussion personal. I was pro for years, it's something I'm passionate about and like discussing ... that's all.
 
KeithR said:
I don't think CoCo bonds are a 2008 type event. I think people have recency bias and its aggravated by algos and ETFs.
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I sure hope not, but credit risk has been exploding and it's starting to spread into investment grade stuff as well. DB has around 60Trillion in derivatives exposure, nobody wants to think about what a Lehman type event there would mean. Quite simply it would be cataclysmic. But if there wasn't any reason for concern, why did DB's own analyst Dominic Konstam put out a memo last night discussing the liquidity crunch and all the things that need to happen to reverse it? His full memo is all over the economic blogs today btw, easy to find.
 
Vapor1 said:
What other USO am I talking about other than the ETF?

And please stop trying to make the discussion personal. I was pro for years, it's something I'm passionate about and like discussing ... that's all.
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Who's making it personal? The only person who seems to want to have the last word on this thread is yourself and you seem to be the one taking any comments personally. Not sure what being "a pro for years" means. In any case, please don't respond to this, I have no interest in having an internet exchange regarding this with you so I will stay out of this thread from here on out. Best to all.
 
Vapor1 said:
And btw, I'll just say it even though it doesn't seem like you care to listen to my input. Buying USO as a long term investment is a terribly bad idea, all you have to do is look at it's historical performance tracking spot prices. USO is not meant to track spot long term, it's meant to track on a daily basis. Long term brings in all the costs involved with futures trading. For example, Dec 2016 is trading at $38. That means USO is buying Dec at $38, so if $38 spot price happens in December you see 0 return. Actually you'd see a loss because of all the other fees incurred during that period. The only way you see a return is if spot price exceeds the price they paid for that futures contract. And every month they have to renew their front month futures contracts, which further eats up any upside returns.

Just look at historical if you don't believe me. USO tracks very closely to the downside, but doesn't come close to tracking the upside. Your plan of holding 3-5 years is very unlikely to yield significant returns even if spot price does rebound sharply.

Why do I even bother sharing things like this? It's not from hubris or any belief I know better, I just don't like seeing people get hurt.
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I am not sure why you do this stuff. I am guessing there may be a couple other folks around here that have spent a bit of time in the markets so stop being so pedantic; its quite unbecoming.

Of course, futures typically slope positively. In explaining my investing approach I said "most" of my plays are 3 to 5 years but not all. Right now I believe ISO's price is so attractive at these levels even with slope losses it offers better yield opportunities than bonds and I want to limit my positions in the equity markets for a while. I also have positions in energy companies but they are not pure plays and I don't have room in my yard for more barrels.
 
Since several of you seem to have a better handle on the stock market than I do I have a question.
I have been following a small cap stock for 12 years I own no stock in it.
The company is a consolidator of small companies as am I their plan is not working well, heavy dept no year end profits ever.
The stock price is well below the company worth if they could turn a profit which I have no reason to think I could not do in 3 to 6 months depending on the season as it is a seasonal thing.
I have never bought a publicly traded company the question is it better to buy stock and try and do a take over or wait for a bankrupt company to come on the market. This is a small company buying very small companies the IPO 12 years ago was 40 cents the very short high many years ago was 60 cents now trading at 5 cents 40 million shares. What are the pit falls of a take over. sorry to high jack thread
 
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